Do the Math – Hillary Can’t Win!

OK, I know, this has nothing to do with programmed reality, nanotech, transhumanism, AI, philsophy, and the rest of the topics we discuss on this site.  But nobody else is saying it and it has to be said.  Mathematically, HILLARY CAN’T WIN!

But somehow, all the pompous political pundits are pontificating that the tide is turning in the Democratic race.

Check out this one from CNN: Analysis: Did Clinton’s latest victory come in time?

Or this one:  Why can’t Barack Obama close the deal?

I just don’t get it.

It was predicted that Hillary would beat Obama in Pennsylvania by 10%.  She beat him by 10%.  Exactly.  No upset, no big win.  Let’s do the math…

Disregarding the Florida and Michigan mess and the flip-flop potential of superdelegates (which can go either way), of the remaining primaries and caucuses, there are 408 delegates left.

Barack is currently beating Hillary by 133 delegates.

That means, for her to win, she has to pull 271 of the remaining delegates to his 137 – almost twice the number.  What are the odds that with Obama being 9 percentage points ahead in the national poll, that Hillary will instead beat him 2 to 1 in the rest of the races?  Mathematically, it has to be near zero.  Someone, please tell me where I did my math wrong and I will gladly pull this post off the blog.

Then again, mathematically, Al Gore won the 2000 election, so I guess anything is possible.  Wink

~ by thearchitect on April 23, 2008.

One Response to “Do the Math – Hillary Can’t Win!”

  1. […] this site.  Usually, it is to get something off my chest, or to make a prediction (e.g. see “Do the Math – Hillary Can’t Win“).  This time it is about another one of my passions – […]

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